There are very few certainties in life, and the world of online sports betting is no different. A common experience that any player of the best NJ online casinos will have had at some point in their playing career is the bookie changing the odds on offer just as you are about to lock in a wager.
This can be an incredibly frustrating experience for players, particularly if you have just spent hours poring over the in-play markets looking for the perfect wager.
Changing odds don’t always have to be a frustrating experience, however, and the reality is that there are often times when changing odds can work in your favor. Before considering this, however, we should first think about why odds change.
Generally speaking, when deciding to offer odds on a particular wager, the bookmaker will consider a number of factors. These are the relative strength of the participants in a bet (i.e. the bookmaker and the bettors), the prevailing market conditions, and an expectation of where and how money will be wagered/placed. These various factors will dictate the specific odds offered by a bookmaker.
In terms of how and why these will change, there are a number of factors at play. The main reasons for this are:
- New information such as team changes, player substitutions, injury news or coaching changes.
- Overall market confidence – as information about the team comes out, how confident are people of the team’s chances of success?
- Allocation of money by bettors – where the money in the market is going will have an impact on the odds that are offered by a bookmaker.
Generally speaking, these are the main factors thatwill drive changes in odds, though it will also depend on how far before the event we are. This is also obviously true for pre-game versus in-game betting. The closer we get to an event, the less uncertainty there is about it as certain factors get discounted from our speculation about outcomes. For example, the closer we get to kick-off in a football game, we have a better sense of what players will be playing in the game and what condition they are in. This will lessen the uncertainty that bettors have about placing a wager, which will, in theory, make the odds lower.
Can I actually use the changing odds to my advantage?
The most important thing to take from our understanding that uncertainty decreases the closer we get to an event and that this drives down the odds is that the old adage ‘the early bird catches the worm’ proves particularly true for sports betting. Knowing in advance that bookies will decrease the odds the closer we get to an event means that you can snap up some good deals while the odds are still high on particular wagers. This also means that you can potentially put down a smaller bet and see bigger returns if it comes good.
This is a great way of using foresight and intuition to your advantage. In this way, you can get the most out of your bookie changing the odds.